Vulnerabilidade climática na Amazônia: Evidências no Vale do Guaporé, Rondônia

Abstract

The Amazon has undergone continuous environmental transformations driven by climate change, ecosystem degradation, and human activities, which have increased its environmental, social, and economic vulnerability. In this context, this study analyzes how land-use changes interact with climatic variations and contribute to rising vulnerabilities in the Guaporé Valley (Rondônia, Brazil), identifying key exposure factors and their implications for territorial planning and climate change adaptation. Land-use and land-cover changes were assessed using Collection 10 of MapBiomas Brazil (1985–2024), while climate trends were analyzed using TerraClimate data for the same period, focusing on precipitation, water deficit, and mean temperature. The results indicate significant land-use changes, with more than 94.6% of natural areas converted into pasture and agricultural land. These transformations are associated with reduced precipitation, increased water deficit, and higher mean annual temperatures, indicating a scenario of growing environmental vulnerability. The intensification of agricultural activities and the loss of vegetation cover increase exposure to climate impacts, while dependence on activities sensitive to water scarcity and thermal variability enhances system sensitivity. In addition, the region’s limited adaptive capacity undermines the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is concluded that regional warming and hydrological imbalance are direct consequences of intensive land use and environmental degradation, highlighting the urgent need for territorial planning actions based on ecological restoration, productive diversification, and adaptive governance to strengthen climate resilience and reduce socio-environmental vulnerability in the Guaporé Valley.